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How we make lines
Our model accounts for lefty/righty splits, pitch framing, relief pitcher velocity and TTO advantage, regressed park factors, lineup projections, fielding data, bullpen availability and leverage, distance traveled, ballpark familiarity, batting order construction, baserunning and more to generate our own line for each game. We then recommend a bankroll stake for each game based on Kelly criterion.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do your bet sizes mean?
The bet size represents the percentage of bankroll the model recommends risking. You will notice some very small bets, this is because we are using a very conservative fraction of Kelly. Also, we have not yet solidified our threshold for betting.
Are your records verified?
We will be posting our picks on reddit.com/r/sportsbook. If any unbiased party out there wants to do us the favor of tracking, please find our email below.
Do you guys win?
We'll see! We certainly make no bold claims about the efficacy of the model, but we do believe it could be a winner. Whether we win or lose, we will measure our success internally by whether we beat the closing line. That is a better predictor of future success than results in our opinion.
When do you post?
We post our picks the night before games are played. Typically by 10:00pm PST.
Why overnights?
There are two main reasons for this. First, 5Dimes offers reduced juice overnight MLB lines. Second, there is less liquidity in the overnight market, which leads to softer lines. We put very little weight into our lines as first pitch approaches.
What are your records?
This is our first season, so we are just getting started. On our picks/results page, our net profit will be kept up-to-date. Additionally, we will track the EV of our bets (assuming the Pinnacle vig-free closing line is perfectly efficient).